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This week I am doing a series on early reviews of my book On the Historicity of Jesus. For now, here is my commentary on what he has posted so far. Hallquist has overall good impressions of the book. But he goes on to make statements that suggest a poor understanding of how probability works ironically, since he makes the point himself that people often have a poor understanding of how probability works.
Yet most theories of historicity are improbable. In fact, that they are is a mathematically necessary truth. Thus, Hallquist does not appear to understand how probability works. The reference classes have to be distinguished: some false theories of motion e. Epicurean; Stratonian were in fact more probable than others e. Empedoclean; Aristotelian. What you want to compare are not crazy theories with plausible theories, but crazy theories with crazy theories and plausible theories with plausible theories.
The existence of crazy theories does not reduce the probability of plausible theories. For example, in the discussion Hallquist is referring to OHJ , pp. I hardly need explain why that is massively improbable.
Instead, what we have to do and logic requires this, as I explain in Proving History , pp. How much of that space is occupied by each theory? I explain this in detail in OHJ , pp. This statement suggests to me that Hallquist did not read my book.